Autor*innen
Kieran Doyle
Organisation/Institut
ACLED
Fachgebiet
Political Science – Conflict and Protest Research
Kontakt E-Mail
communications@acleddata.com
Einsendeart
Ersteinsendung des Projekts
Projektstand
Abgeschlossen
Forschungseinrichtung(en)
Außeruniversitär (Forschungsgemeinschaft)
Publikationsformate
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Drittmittelförderung
Nein
Mittelgeber
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Zentraler Phänomenbezug
Radikalisierung (allgemein)
Arbeitshypothese(n)
Research question: Why has extremist group mobilization in the United States declined during the politically turbulent 2024 election year? Working hypothesis: Extremist groups are less active due to leadership gaps after the January 6 crackdown, a shift from public mobilization to online threats, declining resonance of key issues, and a perception that Trump’s return to power may be inevitable — though the situation could change quickly as the election approaches.
Phänomenbereich
Phänomenübergreifend
Forschungsmethodik
Quantitatives Forschungsdesign
Zentralfokus
Differente Faktoren der Einflussgrößen Person, Ideologie, Umfeld
Erhebungsverfahren
- Beobachtung
- Dokumentenanalyse
Auswertungsverfahren
- Deskriptivanalyse
- Inhaltsanalyse
- Fallanalyse
Forschungsbefunde
Extremist mobilization in the United States has dropped to its lowest levels since ACLED began tracking in 2020.
Key drivers: post-January 6 legal crackdowns and leadership loss, diminished resonance of key mobilization issues, fear of infiltration or prosecution, and a belief among extremist supporters that Trump’s victory is assured.
White nationalist and neo-Nazi groups are exceptions, showing some recent growth despite the overall decline.
This lull may not persist: contentious election outcomes or high-profile incidents could quickly trigger spikes in violence.
Praktische Umsetzung
Highlights the need to monitor less visible forms of radicalization (online threats, decentralized networks). Emphasizes that low current mobilization does not equal low risk; preparedness should account for sudden surges. Data can help law enforcement and policymakers anticipate potential flashpoints ahead of and after the 2024 elections.
Weiterführende Forschungsideen
Longitudinal study comparing pre- and post-election extremist mobilization trends in 2024 and 2020. Investigate how online radicalization and disinformation campaigns substitute for in-person mobilization. Explore conditions under which extremist groups re-enter public spaces after periods of low activity.
Zitation des Projekts
Kieran Doyle. (18 September 2024). “When is quiet too quiet? Understanding shifts in extremist mobilization in 2024.” Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Organization (ACLED). https://acleddata.com/2024/09/18/when-is-quiet-too-quiet-understanding-shifts-in-extremist-mobilization-in-2024/
Quellenangabe projektbezogener Publikation
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