Autor*innen
Organisation/Institut
Fachgebiet
Publikationsformat(e)
Projektstand
Projektbeginn
Projektende
Forschungseinrichtung(en)
Zentraler Phänomenbezug
Phänomenbereich
Lott, Lars; Croissant, Aurel; Trinn, Christoph
Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg; Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg
Politikwissenschaft
Journal
Publiziert
9. Januar 2020
25. Oktober 2023
Universitär
Terrorismus
Phänomenübergreifend
Zentrale Fragestellung:
This study asks if a decline of democratic regime attributes affects the volume of domestic terrorism. We argue that different forms of autocratization may stimulate or suppress terrorist activities. Democratic backsliding may dampen domestic terrorism, while autocratic consolidation may make autocracies more vulnerable to terrorism. This study empirically tests these assumptions on time-series cross-sectional data on domestic terrorism in 182 countries between 1970 and 2020 with a difference-in-differences design. We find that democratic backsliding reduces the amount of terrorism in the short to medium term. Autocratic consolidation increases the number of terrorist attacks in the short to medium term.
Stichprobenbildung – Datenzugang:
182 countries between 1970 and 2020; based on V-Dem data and GTD data, as well as confounders for the matching process
Gesamtstichprobengröße
Inhaltlicher / Thematischer / Empirischer Zentralfokus
Methodik
Erhebungsverfahren
Auswertungsverfahren
Country-years >5000
Multivariante Verfahren, Difference-in-Differences Estimators
Zentrale Forschungsbefunde:
We find that democratic backsliding reduces the amount of terrorism in the short to medium term. Autocratic consolidation increases the number of terrorist attacks in the short to medium term.
Implikationen oder praktische Verwendbarkeiten:
In the short to medium term of one to five years, limiting democratic freedoms or civil liberties can actually make a contribution to fighting terrorism. On the other hand, turning autocracies more autocratic and, by implication, more repressive, will not help to fight terrorism. In the short to medium term, it actually, and perhaps unintentionally, raises the specter of terrorism. The normative implications of these results are partially inconvenient, as they might seem to provide a utilitarian justification for autocratization in terrorism-prone democracies. However, the claim that autocratization is an effective counterterrorism policy in democracies seems dubious to us.
Hinweise / Anregungen zu möglicher Anschlussforschung:
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Zitation des Projekts
- Lott, Lars , Croissant, Aurel, & Trinn, Christoph. (2023).
The Ambivalent Effect of Autocratization on Domestic Terrorism. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism. doi:10.1080/1057610X.2023.2270479
Quellenangabe projektbezogener Publikation
