Autor*innen
Organisation/Institut
Fachgebiet
Publikationsformat(e)
Projektstand
Projektbeginn
Projektende
Forschungseinrichtung(en)
Zentraler Phänomenbezug
Phänomenbereich
Wondreys, Jakub
Hannah-Arendt-Institut für Totalitarismusforschung e. V. an der TU Dresden
Political Science
Journal
Finished
1. August 2020
31. Juli 2023
Universitär, Außenuniversitär (Forschungsgemeinschaft)
Extremismus
Rechts, Links, Phänomenübergreifend
Zentrale Fragestellung:
Does ideological extremity affect difference in party performance between elections to the European parliament and national parliamentary elections? HYPOTHESES 1) Ideologically extreme parties perform better in European elections than in previous national elections. 2) The effects of the ideological extremity of a party on its success in the European election are conditional upon its size. The smaller an extreme party, the larger its gains in European elections relative to previous national elections. 3) The effects of the ideological extremity of a party on its success in the European election are conditional upon its participation in government. An extreme party in government will likely experience losses in European elections relative to previous national elections. 4) The losses of extreme parties in government in European elections will likely be larger than those of other (mainstream) government parties. 5) The effects of the ideological extremity of a party on its success in the European election are conditional upon the time elapsed since the most recent national election. The more time elapses, the larger the gains of ideologically extreme parties.
Stichprobenbildung – Datenzugang:
Original dataset that includes vote shares of political parties in all popular European elections (i.e. since 1979) and their closest preceding national elections. All parties that participated in both national and subsequent European elections are included. Consequentially, parties that, for whatever reason, did not participate in one of the corresponding elections are excluded – this thus also includes parties for which a European election was their first nationwide election (e.g. the Brexit Party in the United Kingdom). Further excluded are parties in countries where European and national elections are held on the same day and cases where the government was not yet created when the European election was held. Data are available on request.
Gesamtstichprobengröße
Inhaltlicher / Thematischer / Empirischer Zentralfokus
Methodik
Erhebungsverfahren
Auswertungsverfahren
n=1177
Deskriptivanalyse, Multivariante Verfahren, Inhaltsanalyse, Fallanalyse
Zentrale Forschungsbefunde:
1) a negative effect of ideological extremity on party performance in (second-order) European elections; 2) the effect of ideological extremity is conditional upon party size and the temporal distance of the European election to the last national election, however, these effects are at odds with theoretical expectations of existing research.
Implikationen oder praktische Verwendbarkeiten:
Especially in terms of transformations of European politics. For instance, the findings can be indicative of shifts in voter motivations and the electoral costs of governing for extreme parties.
Hinweise / Anregungen zu möglicher Anschlussforschung:
Elections, Political parties, European politics, Extreme parties
Zitation des Projekts
- Wondreys J (2023).
Unpacking Second-Order Elections Theory: The Effects of Ideological Extremity on Voting in European Elections.
Quellenangabe projektbezogener Publikation
- Electoral Studies 85 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102663
