Perceived Proximal Warning Behaviors in Cases of Severe Targeted Violence at German Schools: A Retrospective Longitudinal Analysis

Autor*innen Nadine Ahlig, Mirko Allwinn, Vincenz Leuschner, Clare S. Allely, Herbert Scheithauer

Organisation/Institut FU Berlin

Fachgebiet Arbeitsbereich Entwicklungswissenschaft und Angewandte Entwicklungspsychologie

Kontakt E-Mail mirko.allwinn@bka.bund.de

Einsendeart Ersteinsendung des Projekts

Projektstand Abgeschlossen

Projektbeginn 01/01/2024

Projektende 16/09/2025

Forschungseinrichtung(en) Forschungsverbund – divers (inkl. Unis, wie etwa MOTRA)

Publikationsformate peer-reviewes

Drittmittelförderung Nein

Zentraler Phänomenbezug Übergreifend: Radikalisierung – Extremismus und/oder Terrorismus

Arbeitshypothese(n) 1. In the pathway to intended violence of the perpetrators of STSVs, when are the WBs initially noticed by other persons? 2. How often are the WBs observed? 3. Are certain WBs perceived more frequently close to the STSV?

Phänomenbereich Phänomenunspezifisch (kein ausdrücklich ausgewiesener Phänomen- bzw. ideologischer Bezug)

Forschungsmethodik Mixed-Methods Forschungsdesign

Zentralfokus (primär) Person

Forschungsbefunde The recognition and management of students who exhibit warning behaviors (WBs) is an important prerequisite for the prevention of severe targeted acts of violence at schools (STSV). In the present study, the temporal occurrence of proximal WBs was retroactively examined in 11 German cases. The WBs were plotted chronologically, starting from the initial WB up to the day of the STSV. Only the behavior perceived at the time was evaluated, without including information that only became known after the STSV. A prototypical temporal order of initial perception was identified. In each case, WBs were already perceived before the first Leakage or Directly communicated threat. WBs can usually only be recognized as such in a wider psychosocial context (e.g. including information about current psycho-social crises). The findings highlight the need to establish structures at schools in cooperation with other institutions as part of a threat assessment and management for indicated prevention.

Praktische Umsetzung Implication for practice and prevention: The present study shows that signs of a psycho-social crisis can be observed at an early stage. It is therefore suggested to implement preventive measures at an early stage in order to be able to react to these signs. This may prevent a person entering a pathway to intended violence (Fiedler et al., 2020). We recommend to establish networks that integrate information from multiple sources (e.g., peers, teachers, parents). This information should be evaluated by multiple individuals who are trained in the threat assessment process. Programs that can assist with this and support the management of the threats include the School Threat Assessment Toolkit (Cornell & Maeng, 2024) and the Networks Against School Shootings (NETWASS) prevention program (Leuschner et al., 2017). The programs support schools in establishing these structures and provides knowledge to conduct well-founded threat analyses. Threat assessment must be systematically integrated across institutions, extending beyond terrorism to school-related cases. Effective assessment requires collaboration between key stakeholders, including educational institutions, law enforcement, and specialized threat assessment teams. It is essential to establish dedicated, well-trained teams that work closely with these entities as well as health authorities. When Leakage or Directly communicated threats are identified, a multi-stage monitoring process should be initiated to systematically collect, chronologically document, and evaluate existing information. Without access to necessary data, due to privacy restrictions, threat and risk assessment cannot function. The objective is not just to prevent a single act of violence but to establish a proactive system that identifies and disrupts the pathway to intended violence early, enabling institutions to implement effective threat management. Studies analyzing thwarted acts of violence suggest that many of them could have been avoided by adequately recognizing and dealing with WBs. Silva and Greene-Colozzi (2022) investigated thwarted STSV in the US and found that 65% were based on Leakage by the perpetrator. Winch et al. (2024) showed that a greater frequency of Leakage is found in thwarted acts of STSV than in completed acts of STSV. The authors conclude that perpetrators have also shown Leakage in the forefront of the STSV, but that this information was less often passed on and thus less often considered.

Zitation des Projekts Ahlig, N., Allwinn, M., Leuschner, V., Allely, C. S., & Scheithauer, H. (2025). Perceived Proximal Warning Behaviors in Cases of Severe Targeted Violence at German Schools: A Retrospective Longitudinal Analysis. Journal of School Violence, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1080/15388220.2025.2558645

Quellenangabe projektbezogener Publikation https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15388220.2025.2558645#abstract

Verlinkung zum Projekt: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15388220.2025.2558645#abstract